EURO-ECO 2011 Hanover 21 - 22 November 2011	Environmental, Engineering - Economic and Legal Aspects for Sustainable Living
	European Academy of Natural Sciences, Hanover European Scientific Society, Hanover University of Bremen, Bremen

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Degree of energy efficiency of economic structure is directly related to the environmental conditions. One of the tools – regional programmes of energy efficiency improvement. In Sverdlovsk region they have been implemented since 1996. As a result energy consumption of gross regional product decreased from the year 2000 to the year 2008 at an annual rate of 5,5%. In the region there are all the necessary prerequisites for low-carbon economy, among them - valuation survey of greenhouse gases which has been carried out.

Implementation of low-carbon strategy in the region, first of all, leads to improvement of energy efficiency in enterprises. This will undoubtedly favour the environmental conditions improvement.

According to our calculations, to decrease energy consumption of gross regional product by the year 2020 by 40% in relation to the level of the year 2007 one should compensate the fuel and energy requirement growth by 90% by way of energy saving.

In 2010 we elaborated the program for energy efficiency improvement in the region as a quintessence of all the accumulated experience. The regional program is the principal tool of energy consumption planning. The basis of the program is fuel-energy supply- demand balance of the region which gives the idea about economic processes in terms of energy units independent of inflation, market conditions and exchange rate fluctuations. Fuel-energy supply-demand balance is not new, it is the continuation of the famous model “costs-output” offered by Vasiliy Leontyev, Nobel prize winner.

Fuel-energy supply-demand balance for forecast purposes allows to reconcile development of economy and energy sectors, to form energy base in time according to the needs of economy, provide energy consumption safety, improve reliability and stability of power supply systems. In Sverdlovsk region we have elaborated an economic-and-mathematical model of development of “energy sector in economy” system which serves for making fuel-energy supply-demand balances for forecast purposes. The model is “a dynamic balance of balances” and it combines interproduct balances and balances of consumption of some types of fuel and energy resources.

After having formed and verified informational background the scenario parameters of forecast are determined. After that the fuel-energy supply-demand balance for the current year (base year of the forecast period) is made up. Fuel consumption, heat consumption and electric energy consumption are balanced with respect to separate consumers or kinds of products (works or services), fuel is subdivided by types and power-intensity baselines are determined. After that, according to the earlier established scenario conditions, forecast options of fuel-energy supply-demand balance are worked out, forecast of product output (works, services) is made for a horizon period for each scenario along with the forecast of energy consumption indicators, of demand for fuel in general and for certain fuel types, for electric and heat power. Finally, summary fuel-energy supply-demand balances for the current year and for the horizon period are made up and quality ratings are calculated.

Fuel-energy supply-demand balance allows to estimate energy saving potential – it is equal to 17 mln tons of coal equivalent which could make up a whole mine field. Moreover, the “exploitation” will cost 2-6 times less than getting the same amount of energy by way of increase of energy generation capacities. According to our calculations, till year 2020 one could unleash 180 mln tons of coal equivalent. The biggest part (over 40%) could be saved in production and construction sectors, one third – in fuel and energy sector, 13% - in housing sector.

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