EURO-ECO 2007Hanover4 - 5 December 2007 |
Environmental and Engineering Aspects for sustainable living |
European Academy of Natural Sciences, HanoverEuropean Scientific Society, HanoverRussian Academy of Natural Sciences, Moscow |
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| O.I. Kopitenkova | IMPLEMENTATION PROSPECTS OF ANALYTIC AND PROGNOSTIC FUNCTIONS FOR AGGREGATIVE HYGIENIC MONITORING |
| The St. Petersburg State Railway University, Russia |
Aggregative hygienic monitoring, which has been implemented legislatively as an integral part of healthful research, is a practical implementation of the aggregate technology in the field of ecological research. Aggregative hygienic monitoring makes possible to realize dynamic tracking and systematic estimation of effects and agents in a multifunctional and multicomponent system. The informational background of aggregative hygienic monitoring makes possible to solve a task complex in order to make decisions concerning sanitation-and-epidemiological and ecological wellbeing and risk assessment in point of morbidity and dieoff. Also it makes possible to fit priority resolutions and predict development trends for hygienic and epidemiological situation.
The aggregative hygienic monitoring model has been approved in St. Petersburg. Fundamental tests have been carried out in the four simulative segments in order to estimate cause-effect relations.
Air conditions control in the area of interest has been carried out by 17 ingredients on the base of the results of database elaboration using the index (КОВi). Such ingredients as atmospheric dust, carbon oxide, ammonia, carbolic acid, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, formaldehyde, hydrocarbons whose concentrations outreach antipollution standards have been checked over a period of exploration. Complex air pollution index P (Pinigin) for simulative segments has been calculated on the base of daily mean of threshold limit values. The average index, which is within the range 17,5± 2,54, characterizes air pollution as ‘gross pollution’. The estimate indicator of air pollution is supposed to increase thrice in 5 years if the rate of increase of amount of vehicles keeps.
Estimation of aggregate index of soils pollution with due regard for content of the first three classes of hazard (15 elements) has been carried out according to the aggregate index of pollution. Soils pollution along traffic-ways characterizes as ‘dangerous’.
Except conventional method of hygienic estimation of sanitary state of the habitat the analysis of regularity of plants oppressions and stress-inducing responses, which had happened under the pollutant influence, has been carried out. It is known that plants suppose to be an indicator of environmental pollution. The photometer PIF-M was used for registration of plant changing. As plants suppose to be more sensible to the toxicants influents then homoiothermal organisms, the method makes possible to predict environment letdown beforehand.
The estimation of level of health for indicated group has been carried out. The results underlay the basis of elaboration of mathematical models which fit to prediction of levels of oncologic pathologies, blood diseases, abnormalities of endocrine system. ‘Base’ levels of these abnormalities have been estimated on the base of mathematical analysis.
These methods of ecological estimation of the information concerning environmental pollution make possible to prove managerial solutions in the area of sanitation-and-epidemiological well-being.
Approbation of the scheme, which was worked out, prove the necessity of developing of ways of analysis in the CGM system in case of realization of informative, analytic, scientific and prognostic function within the framework of a management activity of the regulatory authorities.
The scheme of data processing and analysis makes possible to sufficiently estimate the local sanitation-and-epidemiological well-being in due time and arrange sanitary inspection on the territory which is liable to check in strict adherence to the law ‘about sanitation-and-epidemiological well-being of the population of Russian Federation’.